概率

gàilǜ: 概率 - Probability, Likelihood

Quick Summary

  • Keywords: gàilǜ, 概率, Chinese for probability, Chinese for likelihood, chance in Chinese, statistics in Chinese, gailv, learning Chinese math terms, HSK 5 vocabulary
  • Summary: Learn the Chinese word for probability, 概率 (gàilǜ). This guide breaks down its meaning, from its use in mathematics and statistics to everyday conversations about the likelihood of an event. Discover its cultural context, see practical example sentences, and understand how it differs from similar words like “chance” or “possibility” to use it accurately.

Core Meaning

  • Pinyin (with tone marks): gàilǜ
  • Part of Speech: Noun
  • HSK Level: HSK 5
  • Concise Definition: The extent to which an event is likely to occur; probability.
  • In a Nutshell: 概率 (gàilǜ) is the direct and standard Chinese equivalent for the English word “probability.” It is a precise, often numerical, term used to describe the likelihood of something happening. While it is core to technical fields like math, science, and economics, it is also used in formal or serious everyday discussions about chance and possibility.

Character Breakdown

  • 概 (gài): This character means “general,” “approximate,” or “concept.” It implies an overview or a general idea rather than a specific, guaranteed outcome.
  • 率 (lǜ): This character means “rate,” “ratio,” or “frequency.” It provides the mathematical or statistical foundation of the word.
  • Together, 概率 (gàilǜ) literally translates to something like “approximate rate” or “general ratio.” This combination perfectly captures the idea of measuring the likelihood of an event based on its expected frequency or ratio of occurrence.

Cultural Context and Significance

  • Science vs. Superstition: The term 概率 (gàilǜ) represents the modern, scientific, and rational way of looking at chance. This often stands in contrast to more traditional Chinese concepts like 运气 (yùnqì - luck) and 命运 (mìngyùn - fate or destiny). While Western culture also has concepts of luck and fate, in many Chinese social contexts, these ideas can still be very influential.
  • A Modern Concept: You will hear 概率 (gàilǜ) used in modern, educated contexts like weather forecasting, financial analysis, and academic discussions. However, when talking about winning the lottery or finding a good partner, someone might be more likely to talk about their 运气 (yùnqì). The use of 概率 signals a logical, data-driven mindset, whereas relying on 运气 or 命运 implies a belief in forces beyond one's control. The interesting cultural aspect is how these two mindsets—the scientific and the traditional—coexist in modern China.

Practical Usage in Modern China

  • Academic and Technical Contexts: This is the primary use of 概率. In a math class, a scientific paper, or an economic report, 概率 is the only correct term for “probability.”
    • e.g., 概率论 (gàilǜ lùn) - Probability Theory
  • Formal Everyday Conversation: It's used when discussing the chances of something in a serious or analytical way.
    • e.g., Discussing the probability of success for a new business venture.
    • e.g., Analyzing the likelihood of rain based on a weather report.
  • Connotation and Formality: 概率 is neutral and relatively formal. In casual, everyday chat, people might prefer to use simpler words like 可能 (kěnéng - possible/maybe) or 机会 (jīhuì - chance). For example, instead of saying “The probability of me going is low,” a person would more likely say “I probably won't go” (我可能不去 - wǒ kěnéng bù qù).

Example Sentences

  • Example 1:
    • 根据天气预报，明天降雨的概率是百分之八十。
    • Pinyin: Gēnjù tiānqì yùbào, míngtiān jiàngyǔ de gàilǜ shì bǎifēnzhī bāshí.
    • English: According to the weather forecast, the probability of rain tomorrow is 80%.
    • Analysis: A standard, practical use of the term, showing how it is used with percentages.
  • Example 2:
    • 你觉得我们这个项目成功的概率有多大？
    • Pinyin: Nǐ juédé wǒmen zhège xiàngmù chénggōng de gàilǜ yǒu duō dà?
    • English: What do you think is the probability of our project succeeding?
    • Analysis: A common question in a business or work context. Note the use of 有多大 (yǒu duō dà - how big is it?) to ask about the level of probability.
  • Example 3:
    • 从统计学上讲，中彩票的概率非常低。
    • Pinyin: Cóng tǒngjìxué shàng jiǎng, zhòng cǎipiào de gàilǜ fēicháng dī.
    • English: Statistically speaking, the probability of winning the lottery is extremely low.
    • Analysis: This sentence highlights the term's connection to statistics (统计学).
  • Example 4:
    • 医生说手术后完全康复的概率很高。
    • Pinyin: Yīshēng shuō shǒushù hòu wánquán kāngfù de gàilǜ hěn gāo.
    • English: The doctor said the probability of a full recovery after the surgery is very high.
    • Analysis: Demonstrates the use of 高 (gāo - high) and 低 (dī - low) to describe probability.
  • Example 5:
    • 任何事件发生的概率都在0和1之间。
    • Pinyin: Rènhé shìjiàn fāshēng de gàilǜ dōu zài líng hé yī zhījiān.
    • English: The probability of any event occurring is between 0 and 1.
    • Analysis: A classic definition from mathematics, showing the formal, academic nature of the word.
  • Example 6:
    • 投资这种股票，亏损的概率要大于盈利的概率。
    • Pinyin: Tóuzī zhè zhǒng gǔpiào, kuīsǔn de gàilǜ yào dàyú yínglì de gàilǜ.
    • English: Investing in this kind of stock, the probability of losing money is greater than the probability of making a profit.
    • Analysis: A practical example from finance, comparing two different probabilities.
  • Example 7:
    • 学习概率论对理解数据分析很重要。
    • Pinyin: Xuéxí gàilǜ lùn duì lǐjiě shùjù fēnxī hěn zhòngyào.
    • English: Studying probability theory is very important for understanding data analysis.
    • Analysis: Shows 概率 as part of a compound noun, 概率论 (gàilǜlùn), meaning “probability theory.”
  • Example 8:
    • 虽然概率很小，但奇迹还是有可能发生的。
    • Pinyin: Suīrán gàilǜ hěn xiǎo, dàn qíjì háishì yǒu kěnéng fāshēng de.
    • English: Although the probability is very small, miracles can still happen.
    • Analysis: This sentence contrasts the cold, mathematical concept of probability with the more emotional idea of a “miracle.”
  • Example 9:
    • 我们必须计算出所有可能结果的概率。
    • Pinyin: Wǒmen bìxū jìsuàn chū suǒyǒu kěnéng jiéguǒ de gàilǜ.
    • English: We must calculate the probability of all possible outcomes.
    • Analysis: “Calculate probability” (计算概率 - jìsuàn gàilǜ) is a common and important collocation.
  • Example 10:
    • 他被录取的概率几乎为零。
    • Pinyin: Tā bèi lùqǔ de gàilǜ jīhū wéi líng.
    • English: His probability of being accepted is almost zero.
    • Analysis: Shows how to express a near-zero probability. “为零 (wéi líng)” is a formal way to say “is zero.”

Nuances and Common Mistakes

  • `概率 (gàilǜ)` vs. `机会 (jīhuì)`: This is a key distinction.
    • `概率` is a neutral, mathematical measurement of likelihood.
    • `机会 (jīhuì)` means “chance” or “opportunity” and usually has a positive or desired connotation.
    • Example: The probability (`概率`) of the lottery machine picking your number is one in a million. If it does, you get a chance (`机会`) to become rich. You wouldn't say “the opportunity of rain is 80%.”
  • `概率 (gàilǜ)` vs. `可能性 (kěnéng xìng)`: These are very close.
    • `概率` is more mathematical and often implies a numerical value (e.g., 60%, high/low).
    • `可能性 (kěnéng xìng)` means “possibility” and is more general or abstract. It refers to whether something can happen, not necessarily how often it happens.
    • Correct: “The probability of rain is high.” (下雨的概率很高。)
    • Also Correct: “There is a possibility of rain.” (有下雨的可能性。)
    • You can often use them interchangeably, but `概率` is more precise and scientific.
  • Common Mistake: Using `概率` as a verb or adjective. `概率` is a noun.
    • Incorrect: 这件事很概率会发生。(Zhè jiàn shì hěn gàilǜ huì fāshēng.) → “This thing will very probability happen.”
    • Correct: 这件事发生的概率很高。(Zhè jiàn shì fāshēng de gàilǜ hěn gāo.) → “The probability of this thing happening is very high.”
    • Correct (casual): 这件事很可能会发生。(Zhè jiàn shì hěn kěnéng huì fāshēng.) → “This thing will very possibly happen.”

Related Terms and Concepts

  • 可能性 (kěnéng xìng) - Possibility. A very close synonym, but more general and less numerical than `概率`.
  • 机会 (jīhuì) - Chance, opportunity. Refers to a favorable moment or possibility to do something.
  • 统计 (tǒngjì) - Statistics. The academic field in which `概率` is a fundamental concept.
  • 风险 (fēngxiǎn) - Risk. The probability of loss or a negative outcome.
  • 运气 (yùnqì) - Luck, fortune. The non-scientific, traditional concept of personal chance.
  • 命运 (mìngyùn) - Fate, destiny. The idea that events are predetermined and beyond human control.
  • 偶然 (ǒurán) - Accidental, by chance. An adjective or adverb describing an event that was not planned.
  • 必然 (bìrán) - Inevitable, certain. The philosophical and logical opposite of something being probabilistic; a probability of 100%.
  • 频率 (pínlǜ) - Frequency. The rate at which something occurs, a concept used to calculate experimental probability.
  • 或许 (huòxǔ) - Perhaps, maybe. A common adverb used in daily speech to express uncertainty, much more casual than discussing `概率`.